North Korea is exploiting the United States’ preoccupation with Iran to accelerate its military program and bolster its nuclear capabilities, experts told AFP.
Since the outbreak of hostilities on February 28, Pyongyang has conducted five missile tests, including four in April, the highest monthly tally since January 2024, according to an AFP count.
Experts believe these tests reflect North Korea’s desire to project power amid shifts in the balance of power and international norms due to conflicts, particularly in the Middle East.
“The current global security landscape has become a ‘no-rules zone’ where international standards no longer apply,” said Lim Eul-chul, a North Korea expert at Kyungnam University in South Korea. “North Korea is exploiting this vacuum (…) to complete its nuclear arsenal.”
This acceleration came shortly after the ruling Workers’ Party congress in February, which set national priorities. Hong Min, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, believes the timing suggests Pyongyang is seeking to “demonstrate tangible progress” in its military capabilities.
During this conference, held every five years, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un emphasized that his country’s nuclear status is “irreversible and permanent.”
Pyongyang maintains that its military programs are intended to deter any attempt to overthrow its regime, something it accuses the United States of pursuing for decades.
The recent tests have included ballistic missiles, which are prohibited under sanctions, as well as anti-ship cruise missiles and tactical missiles equipped with cluster munitions.
The right time :
Analysts point to technological advancements and an increasing capacity to use dual-use weapons, both conventional and nuclear.
Lim said North Korea appears capable of using miniaturized nuclear warheads and conducting “saturation attacks” designed to overwhelm defense systems with a barrage of projectiles.
He added, “The regime believes the time is right to accelerate its offensive deterrence and develop conventional and nuclear forces simultaneously, while the United States is preoccupied in the Middle East.”
The US president is scheduled to visit China in May, and there is renewed talk of a possible fourth summit with Kim Jong Un, despite previous initiatives failing to produce results.
Pyongyang has reiterated its refusal to denuclearize, a demand made by Washington.
